Confidence in Saskatchewan economy still strong

Despite mounting tales of worldwide economic woe, Saskatchewan residents continue to have confidence in the provincial economy, according to a Sigma Analytics poll conducted for the Regina Leader-Post.

The provincial government also fared well, with respondents suggesting it's more trusted and believable on issues of the economy than most other organizations included in the survey conducted March 6-11.

When asked to rate Saskatchewan's economy on a scale of one (very weak) to five (very strong), the average response was 3.64.

"You might say it's not on Cloud 9, but it's decidedly positive," said Cam Cooper with Sigma Analytics.

When asked to weigh in on what the economy will be like one year from now, 49.5 per cent said it will be the same. About 28 per cent said the Saskatchewan economy will be in better condition, and 23 per cent said it will be worse.

People had a somewhat brighter view of the provincial economy than of their own economic situation, although those numbers were also generally positive. Respondents rated their personal economic situation at an average 3.36.

The age group most likely to rank their personal economic situation today as getting worse was the 60 to 69 segment -- perhaps due to the impact of the downturn on their retirement plans, Cooper said.

However, larger portions of respondents -- on both a personal and provincial level -- feel the economic situation will get better in the next year compared to the number who feel it will get worse.

Ken Rasmussen of the Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Regina said people have some reason for optimism here given the nature of Saskatchewan's boom has been fairly prudent, suggesting the downturn will be that way, too.

"There's unlikely to be large scale industrial layoffs in the economy just because it's not the nature of our economy. Our commodities are perhaps less in demand, but we're still pumping oil out of the ground," Rasmussen said.

"I think people have reasonable expectations that as long as we have commodities that other people want, our economy will be OK," he said, noting the Saskatchewan Party government has also been consistent in sending an upbeat message.

And on a scale of one (very low) to five (very high), respondents gave the provincial government an average score of 3.2 when asked about how much they trust various institutions to take steps to benefit the economy. Only the business community ranked higher, while banks, the federal government and unions trailed.

The business community and the provincial government were also rated as the most believable sources of information about what is really happening in the economy, followed by the news media, banks, the Internet, the federal government and unions.

Saskatchewan Finance Minister Rod Gantefoer said in an interview last week the confidence those surveyed expressed in the government was satisfying.

"We've worked to be measured and communicate caution," Gantefoer said, adding that this perhaps is one reason people believe his government's message that Saskatchewan will remain strong despite the economic downturn everywhere else. "We have a pretty consistent and positive story in Saskatchewan."

And while the province's finance minister said he has taken no satisfaction that the economy might not be quite as strong as it was a year ago, he thinks it will be immensely helpful that the public remains positive.

"In my opinion, a lot of the economic success is attitudinal," Gantefoer said.

Respondents took a dim view of government stimulus programs, with 40 per cent saying they have low or very low confidence that the programs can restore economic health, compared to 17 per cent who had high or very high confidence. Most respondents were neutral. Running a deficit to pay for the stimulus programs -- as the federal government will do this fiscal year -- didn't sit well, with only 17 per cent expressing a high or very high degree of comfort with that idea.

The survey of 613 people was conducted March 6-11 with respondents ages 19 and older, for a general margin of error of plus or minus 3.97 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

- Angela Hall - Saskatchewan News Network - Regina Leader-Post